Getting to First Bayes

Thomas Bayes

BrooklynDodger thought it worthwhile to state the approach of this blog, and also to justify posting a picture gleaned from the web. The Dodger warns the reader that this approach lacks of formal training in either philosophy of science or statistics. "Bayesian" means that the investigator starts with an idea, and a degree of uncertainty that the idea is correct. New pieces of knowledge are sought to strengthen or reduce that degree of certainty.

The blog jumps off from the point of view that occupational and environmental chemical exposures, traumatic injury and musculoskeletal disorder risk factors, and psychosocial stressors are major, abatable causes of illness and injury. Victims are predominantly "innocent" targets of their environment.

The contrary view is that victims are "guilty" of personal behavioral failings or unchangeable genetics. This approach seeks to immunize corporations, governmental and other social forces dominated by the economic elites from responsibility, and thereby preserve the status quo.

So, the Dodger picks scientific and other technical reports which deal with key issues in the debate.

• One issue is that victims behaving badly cause their own illnesses, especially by drinking alcohol and being fat.
• Another issue is that injuries are a product of bad behavior in a satisfactory environment. An example is a one-dimensional [well maybe two dimensional] approach to traffic safety focused only on seat belt use and drunk driving, rather than roads, car design and hours of work.
• Still another is attributing all respiratory cancers to cigarette smoking, by ignoring emerging evidence of many additional respiratory carcinogens.